Jakarta, POROSNEWS.ID – Menjelang Pemilu 2024, sejumlah Parpol baru berusaha menjadi pendatang baru. Dari 20 parpol yang diumumkan lolos verifikasi administrasi tahap I oleh KPU, 5 diantaranya adalah Parpol baru.
Kelima parpol baru itu adalah Partai Kebangkitan Nusantara (PKN), Partai Rakyat Adil Makmur (PRIMA), partai Gelombang Rakyat Indonesia (Gelora), partai Buruh, dan partai Ummat.
Tentu saja, jalan terjal masih harus dilalui oleh Parpol baru untuk memastikan tiket sebagai parpol peserta Pemilu. Mulai dari memastikan bisa lolos verifikasi administrasi tahap II hingga verifikasi faktual.
Namun, jika parpol-parpol baru itu lolos sebagai parpol peserta pemilu, seberapa besar peluang mereka bisa meraup dukungan elektoral?
Party ID
Di Indonesia, dukungan terhadap parpol sebetulnya tidak stabil. Itu tercermin pada party-ID yang rendah. Survei terbaru SMRC menunjukkan, party-id pada Mei 2022 hanya 8,4 persen.
Party-identification atau party-ID merupakan konsep tentang kedekatan dan keterikatan pemilih terhadap partai politik yang dipilihnya dalam pemilu.
Trend penurunan party-ID terkait dengan memburuknya kinerja parpol di mata pemilih. Ini terkait dengan banyaknya kasus korupsi yang menyeret petinggi/pengurus partai hingga kegagalan parpol merespon isu-isu warga.
Selain itu, rendahnya party-ID juga terkait dengan kegagalan parpol dalam melakukan diferensiasi dan positioning terkait warna ideologi dan program-program partai.
Nah, kalau Parpol baru bisa menghadirkan kebaruan, juga bisa melakukan diferensiasi dengan parpol lama, maka peluang mereka untuk dilirik oleh pemilik cukup besar.
Swing Voters
Di Indonesia, jumlah pemilih yang tidak loyal atau swing voters sangat besar: berkisar 30-40 persen setiap pemilu. Mereka adalah pemilih yang yang berubah atau berpindah pilihan partai atau calon dari pemilu sebelumnya ke pemilu berikutnya.
Sementara survei Litbang Kompas pada Juli 2022 menyebutkan, jumlah pemilih yang belum menentukan pilihan (undecided voters) menjelang pemilu 2024 masih 16,1 persen.
Seperti halnya party-ID, swing voters juga menunjukkan gejala ketidakstabilan dukungan elektoral. Selain dipengaruhi oleh situasi dan dinamika politik yang kerap berubah, swing vote juga merupakan reaksi pemilih terhadap kinerja parpol.
Sejumlah pengamat dan lembaga survei mengidentifikasi swing voters dan undecided voters ini diidentifikasi sebagai pemilih kelas menengah perkotaan dan pemilih usia muda.
Volatilitas Elektoral
Volatilitas elektoral atau electoral volatility (VP) dalam pemilu Indonesia cenderung menurun. Total jumlah perubahan suara antar partai dalam tiga pemilu terakhir makin sedikit.
Ini bisa terbaca dari Indeks Paderson dari pemilu ke pemilu: 1999-2004 (25,3 persen), 2004-2009 (29,5 persen), 2009-2014 (19,9 persen), dan 2014-2019 (12,7 persen).
Ini juga terbaca dari total perolehan suara parpol baru dalam empat pemilu terakhir: 21,3 persen (2004), 17,3 persen (2009), 6,7 persen (2014), dan 7,2 persen (2019).
Volatilitas elektoral terjadi pada pemilu 1999, 2004, dan 2009. Pada pemilu 1999, PDIP sebagai pendatang baru muncul sebagai partai pemenang pemilu. Pada pemilu 2004, Demokrat dan PKS menjadi rising star. Pada pemilu 2009, Demokrat tampil sebagai parpol pemenang pemilu.
Tingkat Kepuasan
Tingkat kepuasan terhadap DPR yang sangat rendah juga sebetulnya peluang bagi parpol baru. Sebab, ada kecenderungan pemilih tidak begitu percaya dengan parpol lama/parlemen.
Hampir semua survei konsisten menunjukkan DPR dan Parpol. Seperti survei Indikator Politik Indonesia pada Juli 2022, tingkat kepercayaan terhadap parpol merupakan yang terendah (56,6 persen) dari 10 lembaga/institusi. Sementara DPR hanya 62,6 persen.
Tentu saja, agar bisa dilirik oleh pemilih yang kecewa, Parpol baru harus bisa menunjukkan diferensiasi dengan parpol lama. Parpol baru harus menunjukkan kebaruan: wajah, tata-kelola organisasi, dan program.
NUR ROHMAN, penulis, tinggal di Yogyakarta
This article deserves a wider audience.대출 갈아타기
You’ve provided a nuanced view on this topic.개인돈 대출
Your post has sparked a lot of ideas for me.백링크 업체
Howdy! This blog post could not be written any better! Going through this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He always kept talking about this. I most certainly will send this article to him. Fairly certain he will have a good read. I appreciate you for sharing!
Great info. Lucky me I found your website by accident (stumbleupon). I have book marked it for later!
Good post. I learn something totally new and challenging on websites I stumbleupon every day. It will always be exciting to read through content from other authors and use something from their sites.
Pretty! This has been an extremely wonderful post. Many thanks for supplying this information.
Good day! I could have sworn I’ve been to your blog before but after going through some of the posts I realized it’s new to me. Nonetheless, I’m certainly delighted I stumbled upon it and I’ll be bookmarking it and checking back often.
Oh my goodness! Awesome article dude! Thank you so much, However I am having problems with your RSS. I don’t understand why I am unable to join it. Is there anybody else getting the same RSS issues? Anybody who knows the solution will you kindly respond? Thanks.
Next time I read a blog, I hope that it does not fail me just as much as this particular one. After all, I know it was my choice to read through, nonetheless I truly believed you would have something interesting to talk about. All I hear is a bunch of complaining about something that you could fix if you were not too busy looking for attention.
I’m impressed, I must say. Actually rarely can i encounter a weblog that’s both educative and entertaining, and without a doubt, you may have hit the nail for the head. Your notion is outstanding; the pain is an issue that not enough people are speaking intelligently about. We’re very happy i always found this during my find some thing concerning this.
The nice intreguing pages maintain myself arriving here time and time again. many thanks a great deal.
Great info. Lucky me I ran across your blog by accident (stumbleupon). I have saved it for later!
Thank you for the sensible critique. Me and my neighbor were just preparing to do some research on this. We got a grab a book from our area library but I think I learned more clear from this post. I’m very glad to see such excellent information being shared freely out there.
There’s definately a lot to know about this topic. I like all of the points you have made.
When I initially commented I appear to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on whenever a comment is added I receive four emails with the exact same comment. Is there a way you can remove me from that service? Thanks.
I like reading through a post that will make people think. Also, many thanks for allowing for me to comment.
Having read this I thought it was rather enlightening. I appreciate you finding the time and energy to put this content together. I once again find myself spending way too much time both reading and leaving comments. But so what, it was still worthwhile!
Hi! I could have sworn I’ve been to this blog before but after going through many of the articles I realized it’s new to me. Anyways, I’m certainly pleased I stumbled upon it and I’ll be book-marking it and checking back frequently.
I really like it when people get together and share thoughts. Great blog, keep it up.
An interesting discussion is definitely worth comment. There’s no doubt that that you ought to write more on this subject matter, it might not be a taboo matter but typically people do not talk about such topics. To the next! Kind regards!
Everything is very open with a clear explanation of the challenges. It was truly informative. Your website is very helpful. Many thanks for sharing!
It’s hard to find experienced people on this topic, however, you sound like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks
I used to be able to find good information from your blog posts.
There’s definately a great deal to know about this topic. I really like all of the points you have made.
Greetings! Very useful advice in this particular article! It’s the little changes that make the most significant changes. Thanks for sharing!
Good info. Lucky me I recently found your website by accident (stumbleupon). I’ve book marked it for later.
I was very happy to discover this site. I wanted to thank you for ones time due to this wonderful read!! I definitely loved every part of it and I have you book-marked to see new stuff in your site.
After I originally left a comment I seem to have clicked on the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and from now on each time a comment is added I receive 4 emails with the exact same comment. There has to be a way you are able to remove me from that service? Thank you.
After I originally left a comment I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I recieve 4 emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is a way you are able to remove me from that service? Many thanks.
I truly love your site.. Excellent colors & theme. Did you make this site yourself? Please reply back as I’m looking to create my own blog and would like to know where you got this from or just what the theme is called. Thank you!
bookmarked!!, I love your site!
Hi, I do believe this is a great website. I stumbledupon it 😉 I will return yet again since I book marked it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to help others.
Aw, this was an extremely good post. Taking a few minutes and actual effort to generate a very good article… but what can I say… I procrastinate a whole lot and never seem to get nearly anything done.
Great post. I’m dealing with many of these issues as well..
An interesting discussion is definitely worth comment. I believe that you need to write more about this subject matter, it might not be a taboo subject but generally people don’t discuss these issues. To the next! Many thanks!
There is certainly a lot to know about this topic. I like all the points you made.
An impressive share! I have just forwarded this onto a coworker who had been doing a little homework on this. And he actually bought me dinner simply because I found it for him… lol. So let me reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending some time to talk about this issue here on your internet site.
This page definitely has all of the information I wanted about this subject and didn’t know who to ask.
Hi, I do think this is an excellent website. I stumbledupon it 😉 I may return once again since i have book marked it. Money and freedom is the best way to change, may you be rich and continue to help other people.
I like reading an article that will make men and women think. Also, thanks for allowing me to comment.
Oh my goodness! Impressive article dude! Thank you so much, However I am going through troubles with your RSS. I don’t understand the reason why I am unable to subscribe to it. Is there anybody else having similar RSS problems? Anyone who knows the solution can you kindly respond? Thanks.
After I initially commented I seem to have clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now whenever a comment is added I receive four emails with the same comment. Perhaps there is a means you can remove me from that service? Thanks a lot.
An impressive share! I’ve just forwarded this onto a friend who has been conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact bought me lunch because I found it for him… lol. So allow me to reword this…. Thanks for the meal!! But yeah, thanx for spending some time to talk about this matter here on your web page.
Thank you for sharing your expertise with us.백링크 구매
I’m amazed, I have to admit. Seldom do I come across a blog that’s equally educative and amusing, and let me tell you, you have hit the nail on the head. The problem is an issue that too few people are speaking intelligently about. I’m very happy that I found this in my hunt for something concerning this.
Greetings! Very useful advice within this post! It’s the little changes which will make the greatest changes. Many thanks for sharing!
It’s nearly impossible to find well-informed people in this particular topic, but you seem like you know what you’re talking about! Thanks
I was able to find good information from your blog posts.
Saved as a favorite, I love your website.
You are so awesome! I do not suppose I have read through anything like that before. So great to find somebody with some genuine thoughts on this subject matter. Really.. thanks for starting this up. This site is something that is needed on the web, someone with a bit of originality.
Hi there! This post could not be written any better! Reading through this post reminds me of my previous roommate! He continually kept preaching about this. I am going to send this information to him. Pretty sure he will have a very good read. Many thanks for sharing!
Hi there! I just wish to offer you a big thumbs up for the excellent information you have got here on this post. I’ll be coming back to your blog for more soon.
You have made some really good points there. I checked on the net to find out more about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this website.
Good post! We are linking to this particularly great content on our site. Keep up the great writing.
bookmarked!!, I like your site.
I was very pleased to find this website. I wanted to thank you for your time just for this fantastic read!! I definitely loved every little bit of it and I have you book marked to check out new stuff in your site.
The very next time I read a blog, Hopefully it won’t disappoint me just as much as this one. I mean, I know it was my choice to read, however I actually thought you would have something interesting to say. All I hear is a bunch of moaning about something you could fix if you weren’t too busy looking for attention.
I’m impressed, I must say. Rarely do I come across a blog that’s both educative and amusing, and without a doubt, you’ve hit the nail on the head. The issue is an issue that too few people are speaking intelligently about. Now i’m very happy that I came across this in my search for something relating to this.
Oh my goodness! Incredible article dude! Thank you, However I am having problems with your RSS. I don’t know why I cannot join it. Is there anybody else having the same RSS issues? Anyone that knows the solution will you kindly respond? Thanks!!
I want to to thank you for this excellent read!! I certainly enjoyed every little bit of it. I’ve got you saved as a favorite to look at new things you post…
Hi, I do believe this is a great blog. I stumbledupon it 😉 I’m going to revisit yet again since I saved as a favorite it. Money and freedom is the greatest way to change, may you be rich and continue to guide others.
Great site you’ve got here.. It’s difficult to find excellent writing like yours nowadays. I really appreciate people like you! Take care!!
Good post! We are linking to this particularly great article on our website. Keep up the good writing.
I’m very pleased to find this website. I need to to thank you for your time due to this fantastic read!! I definitely enjoyed every little bit of it and i also have you book-marked to see new information in your web site.
You’ve made some decent points there. I checked on the web to learn more about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this website.
I really like it when folks come together and share thoughts. Great website, stick with it.
You have made some good points there. I checked on the internet to find out more about the issue and found most people will go along with your views on this website.