Peluang Partai Baru di Pemilu 2024

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Jakarta, POROSNEWS.ID – Menjelang Pemilu 2024, sejumlah Parpol baru berusaha menjadi pendatang baru. Dari 20 parpol yang diumumkan lolos verifikasi administrasi tahap I oleh KPU, 5 diantaranya adalah Parpol baru.

Kelima parpol baru itu adalah Partai Kebangkitan Nusantara (PKN), Partai Rakyat Adil Makmur (PRIMA), partai Gelombang Rakyat Indonesia (Gelora), partai Buruh, dan partai Ummat.

Tentu saja, jalan terjal masih harus dilalui oleh Parpol baru untuk memastikan tiket sebagai parpol peserta Pemilu. Mulai dari memastikan bisa lolos verifikasi administrasi tahap II hingga verifikasi faktual.

Namun, jika parpol-parpol baru itu lolos sebagai parpol peserta pemilu, seberapa besar peluang mereka bisa meraup dukungan elektoral?

Party ID

Di Indonesia, dukungan terhadap parpol sebetulnya tidak stabil. Itu tercermin pada party-ID yang rendah. Survei terbaru SMRC menunjukkan, party-id pada Mei 2022 hanya 8,4 persen.

Party-identification atau party-ID merupakan konsep tentang kedekatan dan keterikatan pemilih terhadap partai politik yang dipilihnya dalam pemilu.

Trend penurunan party-ID terkait dengan memburuknya kinerja parpol di mata pemilih. Ini terkait dengan banyaknya kasus korupsi yang menyeret petinggi/pengurus partai hingga kegagalan parpol merespon isu-isu warga.

Selain itu, rendahnya party-ID juga terkait dengan kegagalan parpol dalam melakukan diferensiasi dan positioning terkait warna ideologi dan program-program partai.

Nah, kalau Parpol baru bisa menghadirkan kebaruan, juga bisa melakukan diferensiasi dengan parpol lama, maka peluang mereka untuk dilirik oleh pemilik cukup besar.

Swing Voters

Di Indonesia, jumlah pemilih yang tidak loyal atau swing voters sangat besar: berkisar 30-40 persen setiap pemilu. Mereka adalah pemilih yang yang berubah atau berpindah pilihan partai atau calon dari pemilu sebelumnya ke pemilu berikutnya.

Sementara survei Litbang Kompas pada Juli 2022 menyebutkan, jumlah pemilih yang belum menentukan pilihan (undecided voters) menjelang pemilu 2024 masih 16,1 persen.

Seperti halnya party-ID, swing voters juga menunjukkan gejala ketidakstabilan dukungan elektoral. Selain dipengaruhi oleh situasi dan dinamika politik yang kerap berubah, swing vote juga merupakan reaksi pemilih terhadap kinerja parpol.

Sejumlah pengamat dan lembaga survei mengidentifikasi swing voters dan undecided voters ini diidentifikasi sebagai pemilih kelas menengah perkotaan dan pemilih usia muda.

Volatilitas Elektoral

Volatilitas elektoral atau electoral volatility (VP) dalam pemilu Indonesia cenderung menurun. Total jumlah perubahan suara antar partai dalam tiga pemilu terakhir makin sedikit.

Ini bisa terbaca dari Indeks Paderson dari pemilu ke pemilu: 1999-2004 (25,3 persen), 2004-2009 (29,5 persen), 2009-2014 (19,9 persen), dan 2014-2019 (12,7 persen).

Ini juga terbaca dari total perolehan suara parpol baru dalam empat pemilu terakhir:  21,3 persen (2004), 17,3 persen (2009), 6,7 persen (2014), dan 7,2 persen (2019).

Volatilitas elektoral terjadi pada pemilu 1999, 2004, dan 2009. Pada pemilu 1999, PDIP sebagai pendatang baru muncul sebagai partai pemenang pemilu. Pada pemilu 2004, Demokrat dan PKS menjadi rising star. Pada pemilu 2009, Demokrat tampil sebagai parpol pemenang pemilu.

Tingkat Kepuasan

Tingkat kepuasan terhadap DPR yang sangat rendah juga sebetulnya peluang bagi parpol baru. Sebab, ada kecenderungan pemilih tidak begitu percaya dengan parpol lama/parlemen.

Hampir semua survei konsisten menunjukkan DPR dan Parpol. Seperti survei Indikator Politik Indonesia pada Juli 2022, tingkat kepercayaan terhadap parpol merupakan yang terendah (56,6 persen) dari 10 lembaga/institusi. Sementara DPR hanya 62,6 persen.

Tentu saja, agar bisa dilirik oleh pemilih yang kecewa, Parpol baru harus bisa menunjukkan diferensiasi dengan parpol lama. Parpol baru harus menunjukkan kebaruan: wajah, tata-kelola organisasi, dan program.

NUR ROHMAN, penulis, tinggal di Yogyakarta

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